Just eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the source for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant this season, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.