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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."